MIDCARE Interactive Dashboard

Population growth rate (annual)

0.76% / yr

Consultant increase rate

3.50%

Model 2 bed growth parameter

0.190

Model 4 bed growth rate

1.50%

Optimal bed occupancy ratio

0.850

Normal length of stay (days)

5.0 days

Normal specialist-to-bed ratio (per 1,000 bed-days)

0.557

Normal bed-to-patient ratio

0.00510

Observed / historic reference, 2009–2025 Simulated model trajectory from 2009 Planned-capacity reference to 2031

On opening, only the red historic reference series is shown. Press Run to animate the blue model trajectory from the calibrated 2009 initial conditions to the selected end year. Changing a slider clears the previous blue run; press Run again to simulate the revised scenario. Slider ranges are intentionally broader than the calibrated base values for stress-testing. The model is calibrated through 2031; after 2031 the dashboard applies bounded annual feedback rates so long-horizon scenarios remain numerically stable and do not explode or stop at an arbitrary bed ceiling.

Population — Mid-West

Consultants — Headcount

Model 2 Beds

Model 4 Beds

References and assumptions

Population growth rate — CSO Census of Population 2022 Preliminary Results: Geographic Changes . Census 2022 reported that the population increased in every county between 2016 and 2022, with Clare growing by approximately 7% and Tipperary by approximately 5%. The MIDCARE dashboard uses a simplified blended Mid-West population-growth default of 0.8% per annum to reflect regional growth and support scenario exploration rather than fixed forecasting.
Consultant increase rate (National 6.0%) — HSE Medical Workforce Analysis Report 2024–2025 (PDF) . Mid-West 2009–2024, 4.0% per year (historical mean). Forecast beyond 2024 7.0% per year (recent trend). Conservative single-rate ~5% per year.
Model 2 bed growth multiplier (National ×1.000) — Acute Hospital Inpatient Bed Capacity Expansion Plan (PDF) . Mid-West baseline: ×0.999
Model 4 bed growth rate (National 3.5%) — Acute Hospital Inpatient Bed Capacity Expansion Plan (PDF) . Mid-West baseline: 9.9%
Optimal bed occupancy (0.85) — National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE)'s (2018) . Mid-West 105.4% in the first half of 2025.
Normal length of stay (National 6.0 days) — Hospital Inpatient Enquiry (HIPE) — Department Activity in Acute Public Hospitals in Ireland, 2022 Annual Report (PDF) . UHL (2012–2024): 4.8–5.9 days.
Specialists (per 1,000 bed-days) (National 0.904) — Irish Hospital Consultants Association (IHCA) ; Mid-West baseline: 0.557
Beds per person (National) 2.5 hospital beds per 1,000 people. — HIQA Mid-West Data Analysis (2025) . The Mid-West: 2.2 per 1,000 population.
Calibrated Phase III simulation: The blue model run uses the thesis-calibrated 2009 initial conditions and calibrated Phase III parameter values. The national and regional assumptions above are retained exactly as scenario-planning context and are not represented as the calibrated base-run values.
Planned bed-capacity reference: Green lines show the thesis planned/reference trajectories to 2031. They are comparison series only and do not force or overwrite the blue simulated stocks.
Post-2031 continuation: The calibrated thesis equations are retained through 2031. Values after 2031 are exploratory extrapolations using bounded annual feedback rates; they should not be interpreted as validated forecasts to 2100.